I’m not sure which is sadder: the profile on NPR of Larry Peterson, who was in prison for more than 17 years before DNA testing exonerated him, or the recent lawsuit filed against the federal government by the parents of about 5,000 autistic children.

The tragedy in Peterson’s case is two-fold. His time in prison and the details surrounding his incarceration point too much toward being the victim of circumstance, which continues through today as he tries to rebuild his life. To top it off, Peterson’s accusers still vehemently believe he is guilty in spite of scientific evidence to the contrary. This is a shadow that will likely never leave the former inmate.

In the vaccine-autism case, it is mistaking correlation with causation. The rise in the number of autistic children may be correlated with increased vaccinations in children. Similarly, increased numbers of alcoholics and drug abusers are correlated with the increase of churches being erected in cities. The confounding variable, though, is population increase, not religion, causing people to drink more.

It is well established that humans are causal-seeking beings. Perhaps a cognitive flaw of ours is that we seek to attribute a cause—usually another human; if not, then a god—toward events. Michael Shermer convincingly tells us why in his book “Why People Believe Weird Things.” His bonus chapter, “Why Smart People Believe Weird Things” is also recommended. Randomness and probability are foreign concepts that have to be drilled into the heads of undergraduate students who happen to take research or statistics courses, which is not the majority of the populace.

Gambling is a good example. It is a terribly illogical way to enjoy one’s time, yet the industry is ever growing with the price paid often by those who can least afford it. The gambler’s fallacy, specifically, points to how we think and act. When gambling, rolling die for instance, we like to believe that the result of one throw of a dice is related to other throws. Two rolls of double sixes in a row present the illusion of a quick streak of luck, but the reality is that even if four more subsequent rolls of the die also yield double sixes, each throw is entirely independent of the others.

Our tendency is to continue with the lucky streak while attributing it to something other than random events or the laws of averages. In this case, a streak of double sixes is entirely probable though anomalous. It’s bound to happen sooner or later but attributing a cause other than a statistical likelihood can be costly. Yet, causal attributions for events tend to drive decision making at powerful levels, often to the detriment of one’s self and society-at-large. The Peterson and vaccine-autism cases are just two recent examples.

Public relations professionals, when out of formal attire, will often relate the vast ignorance they confront when dealing with members of the public, particularly in times of controversy. As technology develops ever more quickly, human primates are slow to adapt because our base cognitive skills are even more challenged. The result is a paralysis of analysis. While it’s good for job security, PR folks need to remain vigilant about complex information, as well as how audiences will likely react to realities that contradict gut instinct. In addition to getting what is known for sure on the record, empathy, symmetrical communications, transparency and constant evaluation of strategies and tactics remain continually important.